TRENDS IN POPULATION OF INDIA

India is the second largest populated country in the world. India’s share in the world population is 17.5%. The population of India, at 121 crore, is almost equal to combined population of USA, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Japan. In 1991, population of India was 84.64 crore and in 2001 it was 102.87 crore. Thus, during 1991 to 2001 we added 18.23 crore people and during 2001 to 2011 we added another 18.14 crore people. Thus, decade after decade, the size of our population is growing at explosive rates. But the average annual growth rate has recorded a decline from 1.97 percent in 2001 to 1.64 percent in 2011. But this decline is very modest and we are still in the danger zone as far as growth rate of population is concerned. The addition of 1.8 crore population every year will end up India being the most populated country in the world. According to the United Nations, India is set to replace China as the most populated country by 2022.
The growth rate of population started rising till 1951 though it was not a cause of concern. But after 1951, there was an alarming rise in the population. It continued till 1981. Since 1981, though population has been growing in absolute numbers, growth rate has been declining, offering a slight relief to the policy makers of the country. The growth of India’s population can be divided into four periods.
i.      Period of Stable Population (1891-1921). During the period from 1891 to 1921, growth of Indian population was very slow and it was almost stable. During this period, only 1.27 crore persons were added to the total population. The size of the population increased from 23.87 crore in 1891 to 25.14 crore in 1921. The decades of 1891-1901 and 1911-1921 witnessed negative growth of population because of famines. During the decade of 1901-1911, there was positive growth of population.
ii.      Period of Steady Rise in Population (1921-1951). The year 1921 was referred as the year of ‘Great Divide.’ From 1921 onwards India’s population started rising steadily. The average annual growth rate of population during this 30 years period increased to 1.22 percent. In absolute number, population of India increased by 10.96 crore during this period.
iii.      Period of Population Explosion (1951-1981). Population Explosion is a situation in which size of population tends to become enormous owing to a widening gulf between birth rate and death rate. During the phase of 1951-1981, India witnessed population explosion. Growth rate of population reached to 2.2% by 1981. Average annual growth rate of the population during this period reached to 2.15%.
iv.      Period of Declining Growth Rate of Population (1981 Onwards). From 1981 onwards, India’s population is growing consistently but growth rate of population has been falling. Average annual growth rate of population was 1.64 percent in 2011. It was 2.16 in 1991 and 1.97 in 2001. But in its absolute size, population continues to rise. From 1981 to 2011 53 crore people were added to our population.
The future of human population growth curve is difficult to predict. It may stabilize and become sigmoid when birth rate and death rates are balanced; or may decline rapidly to form J-shaped growth curve.

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